Saturday, August 29, 2009

Double bottom pattern criteria

Let's talk about how to spot double bottom patterns on daily stock charts. Remember that I use a program to auto-magically detect those babies, which means I can't rely on actually (physically) looking at a daily chart to see the pattern. The criteria I use are based on the only information that's available, that is, the daily closes over a period of time, say, the last 6 months.

Ok, here we go then:

First of, you don't want to look at the actual daily prices to detect patterns automatically. You need to smooth the data with some kind of averaging. I personally use a Fourier transform to "smooth out" the daily prices, but I am sure there are other ways to do it.

Since I am satisfied with an incomplete double bottom patten, the trends I am looking for are a 1st downtrend, an uptrend and a 2nd downtrend, in that order. A complete double bottom pattern would require a 2nd uptrend after the 2nd downtrend that goes past the uptrend high.

The 1st downtrend should be long enough. I require a downtrend lasting at least 20 days. That's 4 weeks of trading so it could be reduced to maybe 15, if deemed too long.

The uptrend and 2nd downtrend should be long enough. I need them to last for at least 10 days, when combined.

The lows of the 1st and 2nd downtrends should be close to each other, say, within 4%.

The uptrend high should be high enough, say, at least 10% higher than the lowest lows of the 2 downtrends.

Last but not least, the daily volume should be at least 400,000 shares. I know it has nothing to do with the double bottom pattern detection but any stock needs some liquidity in order to be able to move in price.

Of course, you can play around with the criteria that I've just presented and catch more possible double bottom patterns (or fewer). Once a stock with a possible double bottom pattern is found, I always look at the daily chart to confirm the pattern. Of course, it's likely you are gonna miss some good double pattern stocks with this automated method but I am afraid there's not that much you can do about is (unless you're willing to relax the criteria and do more manual checking).

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